Profs. Raoul V. Kübler, ESSEC Business School, Kai Manke of the University of Munster, and Koen Pauwels of Northeastern University map the high-stakes digital ecosystem of modern political campaigns. By analysing over 200 million social media posts, they reveal a system where polls, ads, and disinformation interact in powerful feedback loops, often with unintended consequences. Their findings show that political support is no longer just won on the ground or the airwaves, but in a complex digital echoverse where every like, share, and news article can alter the political landscape.

The Digital Political Arena: When marketing, media, and disinformation collide by CoBS Editor Hari Chandana Chinni. Related research: I like, I share, I vote: Mapping the dynamic system of political marketing, Raoul V. Kübler, Kai Manke, Koen Pauwels, 2025, Journal of Business Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2024.115014

We often hear about political campaigns as marketing battles, where candidates sell themselves like brands. Billions are spent on TV ads, social media campaigns, and polling to understand and influence voter behaviour. The story typically ends with a winner, a loser, and post-election analysis. But what happens between the ads, the tweets, and the polls? How do these elements interact in a real-time, dynamic system? These are the questions we rarely get answered.

In a landmark study, Prof. Raoul Kübler, Kai Manke, and Prof. Koen Pauwels move beyond isolated tactics to map the entire political marketing system. Using a massive dataset from the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections, they show that this system is a highly interconnected “political echoverse.” Their research reveals that actions by one stakeholder, a candidate’s tweet, a news article, a viral disinformation story create ripple effects that influence all others, often in counterintuitive ways.

While most research celebrates digital reach, this study focuses on the unintended side effects: how disinformation spreads, how media amplifies chaos, and how campaigns can lose control of their own narrative.

From a pool of over 225 potential variables, the authors used advanced modelling to identify the key drivers. Their findings are striking not because they are unpredictable, but because they quantify the powerful, often damaging, dynamics that we intuitively know exist but have struggled to prove. If an election is a battle for public support, this study shows what happens when the battlefield is a hall of mirrors, distorting messages and intentions at every turn.

Three Dynamics that Define the Modern Political Campaign

So, what exactly drives this system? According to the study, it boils down to three core dynamics: the disinformation loop, the media amplification effect, and the metric paradox.

• The Disinformation Loop. The research provides robust evidence that disinformation is a central actor, not a sideshow. It is both a cause and a consequence of poll movements. When a candidate like Hillary Clinton gained in the polls, it triggered a significant increase in disinformation targeting her, aimed at countering her momentum. This disinformation then directly reduced positive word-of-mouth about her and influenced media coverage. Crucially, the most effective disinformation was often partially grounded (e.g., Clinton’s emails), making it more potent than entirely fabricated conspiracies.
• The Media Amplification Effect. Despite the rise of digital media, traditional TV advertising remains a powerful force, directly affecting polls. However, the study reveals a troubling symbiosis: traditional media heavily reacts to social media chatter and, critically, to disinformation. In trying to report on or debunk false narratives, media outlets inadvertently amplify them, lending them credibility and further reach. This creates an “unholy alliance” where the lines between news and noise blur, and the media’s role as a neutral gatekeeper is compromised.
• The Metric Paradox. Campaigns traditionally live and die by polling numbers. However, the study reveals that over-reliance on polls is a dangerous game. The researchers found that different types of polls (traditional vs. probabilistic) respond differently to the same marketing actions. Furthermore, polls are a lagging indicator; by the time they move, the dynamics that caused the shift have already been in motion for days. The study shows that other metrics – social media sentiment, word-of-mouth volume, and media tone – often provide earlier and more nuanced signals of voter behaviour, yet they are frequently ignored in favour of the simplistic horse-race poll number.

Why this Matters for Campaigns, Media, and Democracy

The consequences go far beyond one election cycle. When the political marketing system becomes this reactive and intertwined, it can erode trust in institutions, amplify polarization, and undermine the integrity of democratic discourse. Voters are left in an environment saturated with conflicting signals, while campaigns struggle to communicate their message through the chaos.

For campaign managers, this is a strategic wake-up call. Strategy cannot be based on polls alone. It requires a dashboard of indicators to monitor the digital ecosystem in real-time. Furthermore, understanding these feedback loops is crucial: a well-intentioned tweet from a candidate can trigger a chain of events that leads to a surge in damaging disinformation. Campaigns must be aware of their role not just as message senders, but as actors in a dynamic system they can never fully control.

A Call for a Systemic View

Kübler, Manke, and Pauwels make a compelling case for a new approach. They propose treating political marketing as a complex adaptive system, what they term the “political echoverse.” This means moving beyond studying single channels like only TV ads or only X (Twitter) and instead analysing how all stakeholders interact.

The takeaway? For business, media, and political leaders, the findings offer a clear directive: acknowledge the system. Ignoring the interconnectedness of media, disinformation, and public opinion is like trying to navigate a stormy sea without understanding the winds and currents. The study argues that platforms and policymakers must find ways to reduce the virulence of disinformation feedback loops, while media must re-evaluate its amplification role. Ultimately, a healthier political system depends on recognising that every action within this echoverse has a reaction, and that responsibility is shared.

Useful links:

• Link up with Raoul V. Kübler, Kai Manke, and Koen Pauwels on LinkedIn
• Read a related insight: Blame the Apps, Not Each Other: Social media’s role in political polarization
• Discover ESSEC Business School.

Learn more about the Council on Business & Society

The Council on Business & Society (CoBS), visionary in its conception and purpose, was created in 2011, and is dedicated to promoting responsible leadership and tackling issues at the crossroads of business, society, and planet including the dimensions of sustainability, diversity, social impact, social enterprise, employee wellbeing, ethical finance, ethical leadership and the place responsible business has to play in contributing to the common good.  

• Follow the CoBS on LinkedIn
• Download magazines and learning content from the CoBS website downloads page.

Member schools of the Council on Business & Society.

• ESSEC Business School, France, Singapore, Morocco
• FGV-EAESP, Brazil
• School of Management Fudan University, China
• IE Business School, Spain
• Indian Institute of Management Bangalore, India
• Keio Business School, Japan
• Monash Business School, Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia
• Olin Business School, USA
• Smith School of Business, Queen’s University, Canada
• Stellenbosch Business School, South Africa
• Trinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland
• Warwick Business School, United Kingdom.